Historic data series of COVID-19 in different countries of the world [Série histórica da COVID-19 em diferentes países] [Serie de datos históricos de COVID-19 en diferentes países]
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.12957/reuerj.2020.50470Keywords:
COVID19, Coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, Time seriesAbstract
Objective: to analyse the historic data series of COVID-19 in Brazil, Spain, Italy, China and USA. Method: It’s an observational, retrospective and longitudinal study. We realized a temporal series of cumulative cases of COVID-19 over 28 days after the 100th case confirmed for each country. Trend models were tested and it was chosen the best coefficient of determination (R²). In Brazil, the trend line was segmented on the 1-14th day and on the 15th-28th. Results: For all countries, there was a trend line mostly exponential, with a worse prognosis for the USA, Spain and Italy. In Brazil, there was a trend line with a slower growth curve in the second period (15th-28th day). Conclusion: This study allowed a graphical visualization of the situation of the accumulation of cases in a similar parallel context (from the day of the hundredth case) of different countries.
RESUMO
Objetivo: analisar casos acumulados da COVID-19 em Brasil, Espanha, Itália, China e EUA. Métodos: estudo ecológico, com uso de dados secundários. Realizou-se série temporal de casos cumulativos de COVID-19 por 28 dias, após o 100º caso confirmado de cada país (baseado nas estatísticas do Worldometer 2020). Modelos de tendência linear, exponencial, potencial e logaritmo foram testados, sendo escolhido o melhor coeficiente de determinação (R²). No Brasil, a linha de tendência foi segmentada em 1º-14º dia e 15º-28º dia. Resultados: no 100º dia, os EUA possuíam maior número de casos e o Brasil, o menor. Houve linha de tendência em sua maioria exponencial, com maior velocidade de crescimento nos EUA. No Brasil, houve tendência de crescimento mais lento no segundo período. Conclusão: as linhas de tendência calculadas demonstraram pior prognóstico para os EUA. No Brasil, o crescimento do número cumulativo de casos foi mais lento na no segundo período do estudo.
RESUMEN
Objetivo: examinar casos acumulados de COVID-19 en Brasil, España, Italia, China y Estados Unidos. Método: en este estudio ecológico, se utilizaron datos secundarios para producir series de tiempo de casos acumulados de COVID-19 durante 28 días después del 100o caso confirmado en cada país (de las estadísticas del Worldometer 2020). Se probaron modelos de tendencia lineal, exponencial, potencial y logarítmica y se eligió el mejor coeficiente de determinación (R²). En Brasil, la línea de tendencia se segmentó en los días 1-14 y 15-28. Resultados: el día 100, EE.UU. tuvo el mayor número de casos y Brasil, el menor. Las líneas de tendencia fueron en su mayoría exponenciales, con la tasa de crecimiento más alta en los EE. UU. En Brasil, la tendencia de crecimiento fue más lenta en el segundo período. Conclusión: las líneas de tendencia calculadas mostraron un peor pronóstico para EE. UU. En Brasil, el número acumulado de casos creció más lentamente en el segundo período del estudio.
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