ENVIRONMENTAL SCENARIOS AND THE INCENTIVE TO PROTECT PERMANENT PRESERVATION AREAS IN THE MICROBACIA DO RIO FAGUNDES, PARAÍBA DO SUL/RJ

Abstract

To encourage farmers to preserve and/or restore native vegetation as envisaged in Law 12,651/2012, a sustainable rural development program in Rio de Janeiro invests in the protection and recovery of permanent preservation areas, especially in the spring. Related to the program, the objective of this work is to construct environmental scenarios in the Fagundes River Basin in Paraíba do Sul/RJ, which will subsidize the planning and management of PPAs. The methodology is the quantification of land cover classes, "Forest", "Non Forest", "Water" and "Unclassified" using geotechnologies in two comparative scenarios, 2011 and 2016 and a future scenario, 2046. The program was used ArcGis 10.3 for digital image processing, the Landsat 5TM and Landsat 8 OLI sensors and the Idrisi Selva 17.0/Land Change Modeler program for the generation of predictive models and comparative analysis. The results indicate that, between 2011 and 2016, there was an increase of 160.4 hectares of the "No Forest" class on the "Forest" class: the "Forest" class decreased by 7.4%, while the "No Forest" class increased 5.33%. For the future scenario 2046, the Markovian probabilistic model presents a 52% chance of converting from the "Forest" class to "No Forest", therefore, there is a prediction of a pessimistic future trend of deforestation. It is recommended the monitoring of the watershed related to changes in the land cover and actions of preservation of "Forest".