Foreign Policy and the Electoral Campaign in Brazil: Frames, Public Opinion, and the Domestic Costs of International Alignment Política externa e campanha eleitoral no Brasil: enquadramentos, opinião pública e os custos domésticos do alinhamento internacional

Abstract

This essay examines how the 2026 presidential election may alter domestic political constraints on Brazilian foreign policy (BFP), based on developments in the campaigns and public opinion. We argue that the campaign does not alter voter preferences or redefine foreign policy, but it may reveal the costs of certain BFP positions. Drawing on recent tensions in Brazil-U.S. relations—an explicit point of differentiation among the leading presidential candidates—we argue that an issue originally of an external nature has become subject to competing frameworks for attributing responsibility. The episode does not alter voting intentions, given the high levels of mutual rejection among the leading candidates. Still, it reduces the opposition candidate's potential for electoral growth, especially among segments decisive in forming majorities. We suggest that politicizing international issues in campaigns redefines the domestic costs of foreign policy alignment strategies, placing greater constraints on the next government.