The Dynamics of the Nuclear Relationship Among The U.S., Russia and China and its Impacts on the Non-Proliferation Regime
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.12957/rmi.2023.79698Keywords:
China, USA, Minimum deterrenceAbstract
The article addresses the challenges to the nuclear non-proliferation regime brought by the contemporary dynamics of cooperation and conflict between the US, Russia and China. To this end, it sums up the history of the nuclear relationship between the nuclear superpowers during the Cold War, focusing on the issues of nuclear deterrence and the quest for nuclear stability by the USA and the USSR. It also highlights the creation of the main agreements related to nuclear weapons and the importance of the cooperation between the nuclear superpowers for the achievement of these arrangements. Finally, a parallel is drawn between efforts to modernize China's nuclear arsenals and French thinking on minimum deterrence. It is argued that the analysis of Chinese nuclear policy is central to understanding the current low prospects for nuclear weapons agreements between nuclear powers, as well as nuclear disarmament initiatives.
Received on: 21 Oct. 2023 | Accepted on: 22 Nov. 2023.
Downloads
References
China (2006). China’s National Defense in 2006. Disponível em: http://www.china.org.cn/english/features/book/194421.htm. [Acesso em: 31 ago. 2023].
Dawood, Layla (2020). “Os esforços de modernização do arsenal nuclear chinês: balanceamento interno e transformação no sistema internacional contemporâneo”. Geosul, 35 (77), pp. 296-320, [Online]. Disponível em: http://doi.org/10.5007/2177-5230.2020v35n77p296. [Acesso em: 31 ago. 2023].
Denmark, Abe; Wirtz, James J. (2005). “Minimum Deterrence”. In: CROSSY, Eric A.; WIRTZ, Jamed J. (ed.). (2005). Weapons of Mass Destruction: An Encyclopedia of Worldwide Policy, Technology, and History. Santa Barbara (CA), ABC-Clio.
Diniz, Eugenio (2016). “Armamentos Nucleares: Dissuasão e Guerra Nuclear Acidental”. Carta Internacional, 11 (1), pp. 9-62, [Online]. Disponível em: http://doi.org/10.21530/ci.v11n1.2016.472. [Acesso em: 31 ago. 2023].
Estados Unidos da América (2022) Annual report to Congress: military and security developments involving the People’s Republic of China. Disponível em: China Military Power Report (defense.gov). [Acesso em: 25 ago. 2023].
Estados Unidos da América (2023) Chinese Nuclear and Missile Proliferation. Congress Research Service, 1 fev. Disponível em: IF11737 (congress.gov). [Acesso em: 8 mai. 2023].
Gere, François. (2015). “André Beaufre et l’Institut Français d’Etudes Stratégiques 1902-1975”. Diploweb.com: la revue géopolitique, 9 mai.
Gere, François. (2017). “P. M. Gallois, stratège et pédagogue de la dissuasion nucléaire.” Diploweb.com : la revue géopolitique, 4 février.
Jeffrey, G. (2007). The minimal means of reprisal. China’s search for security in the nuclear age. Cambridge: The MIT Press.
Jianqun, Teng. (2011) “China’s Perspectives on Nuclear Deterrence and Disarmament”. In: CHALMERS, Malcolm; SOMMERVILLE, Andrew; BERGER, Andrea. Small nuclear forces. Five perspectives. Whitehall Report Series. Londres: RUSI, pp. 41-52.
Kristensen, H.; Korda, M. (2019) “Chinese nuclear forces, 2019”. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 2019, 75 (4), pp. 171–178. Disponível em: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/00963402.2019.1628511?needAccess=true. [Acesso em: 21 mai 2020].
Kristensen, H. M.; Korda, M.; Reynolds, E. (2023). “Chinese Nuclear Weapons, 2023”, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 79 (2), pp. 108-133, Disponível em: https://doi.org/10.1080/00963402.2023.2178713. [Acesso em: 31 ago. 2023].
Kulacki, Gregory. (2011). “China’s Nuclear Arsenal: status and evolution”. Union of concerned scientists. Oct. 2011. Disponível em: Microsoft Word - Chinese Nuclear Modernization-UCS 10-13-11.doc (ucsusa.org). [Acesso em: 31 ago. 2023].
Lewis, Wilson John; Hua, Di. (1992). “China ballistic missile programs. Technologies, strategies, goals”. International Security,17 (2), pp. 5-40.
Lewis, Wilson John; Litai, Xue. (1998). China builds the bomb. Stanford: Stanford University Press.
Lewis, Wilson John; Litai, Xue. (1994). China’s strategic seapower. The politics of force modernization in the nuclear world. Stanford: Stanford University Press.
Lieber, Keir; Press, Daryl. (2006). “The end of mad? The nuclear dimension of U.S. primacy”. International Security, 30(4), pp. 7-44.
Lieber, Keir; Press, Daryl. (2007). “U.S. Nuclear primacy and the future of the Chinese deterrent”. China Security, pp. 66-89.
Lieber, Keir; Press, Daryl. (2020). The myth of nuclear revolution. Power politics in the atomic age. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.
Mearsheimer, John J. (2001). The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. New York, W. W. Norton & Co.
Payne, Keith B. (1996). Deterrence in the second nuclear age. Lexington: The University Press of Kentucky.
Payne, Keith B. (2001). The fallacies of Cold War deterrence and new direction. Lexington: The University Press of Kentucky.
Schelling, Thomas C. (1966). Arms and Influence. New Haven, Yale University Press.
Stalhane, Henrik et al. (2023). “The dynamics of an entangled security dilemma. China´s changing nuclear posture”. International Security, 47, pp. 147-187.
Talmadge, Caitlin. (2023). “Multipolar deterrence in the emergent nuclear era”. In: NARANG, V.; SAGAN, S. The fragile balance of terror: deterrence in the new nuclear age. Cornel University Press, pp. 13-28.
Tertrais, Bruno. (2020). French Nuclear Deterrence Policy, Forces,and Futures: A Handbook. Paris, Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique.
Yoshihara, Toshi; Holmes, James. (2010) Red star over the Pacific. China’s rise and the challenge to U.S. marine strategy. Annapolis: Naval Institute Press.
Yunzhu, Yao. (2005). “Chinese Nuclear Policy and the future of minimum deterrence”. Strategic Insights, 4 (9).
Zhang, Hui. (2012). The defensive nature of China's "underground great wall". Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Disponível em: The defensive nature of China's "underground great wall" - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (thebulletin.org). [Acesso em: 31 ago. 2023].
Waltz, Kenneth N. (1979). Theory of International Politics. New York, McGraw-Hill.
Waltz, Kenneth N. (1995). “More May Be Better”. In WALTZ, Kennet N; SAGAN, Scott D. The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A debate. New York, W.W. Norton & Company, 1995.
Waltz, Kenneth N. (2012). “Why Iran Should Get the Bomb”. Foreign Affairs, 91 (4).
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2023 Layla Dawood, Prof. Eugenio
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
The Copyrights of articles published in Revista Mural Internacional belong to their respective author (s), with the first publication rights assigned to Mural International, with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License, which allows sharing the work with an acknowledgment of authorship and initial publication in this journal. Due to the fact that they appear in Mural Internacional, the articles are free to use, with mandatory attribution of authorship, for use in educational and non-commercial applications, according to the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License adopted by this journal.
This work is licensed under a license Creative Commons Atribuição 4.0 Internacional.
