THERMAL VARIABILITY ANALISYS OF THE CITY OF PARANAGUÁ-PR FOR APPLICATION IN STUDIES ON THE PROLIFERATION OF AEDES AEGYPTI

Abstract

IPCC forecasts (2013) point to an increase in the global average temperature until the end of this century between 1.8 ° C and 4.0 ° C, resulting in natural disasters, as well as epidemics such as dengue, mainly in the tropics of the planet. Thus, the present article aims to analyze the temperature variability in the city of Paranaguá / PR, aiming at the application in future studies on the proliferation of Aedes aegypti mosquito. The city began to present dengue epidemics in recent periods, thus motivating the investigation, in order to verify if there were thermal alterations that could favor the vector of the disease. Annual, annual and monthly temperature data from the INMET meteorological station in Paranaguá were analyzed and correlated with the South Oscillation Index and the South Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Index. Analyzes showed a high correlation through different statistical methods. An increase of 0.8 ° C in the mean temperature was also detected in the period analyzed, which is not to say that this is the only reason, especially for the great epidemic that occurred between 2014/2015 in the city of Paranaguá / PR, requiring new studies that aim to include other parameters to be analyzed