Metodologia da retropolação da taxa de desemprego do Rio (2002-2023)

Authors

  • Marcel Balassiano SMDE (Secretaria Municipal de Desenvolvimento Econômico do Rio de Janeiro)
  • Marcus Gerardus Lavagnole FGV EMAp - Escola de Matemática Aplicada
  • Maíra Penna Franca Universidade Cândido Mendes
  • Leonardo Moog FGV EPGE
  • João Gabriel Garcez SMDE (Secretaria Municipal de Desenvolvimento Econômico do Rio de Janeiro)

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.12957/cdf.2025.89436

Keywords:

labor market; unemployment rate; retropolation; Rio de Janeiro.

Abstract

ABSTRACT

Analyzing Brazil’s labor market presents methodological challenges, such as the discontinuation of time series. To address this, standard practice involves constructing historical series backward in a way that ensures data compatibility. This study aims to retropolate (reconstruct historical quarterly data prior to 2012, going back to 2002) the unemployment rate for the city of Rio de Janeiro, using a methodology similar to Bacciotti and Marçal (2020). This will allow for a single, continuous, and comparable historical series of Rio’s unemployment rate over the past 22 years (2002–2023). Additionally, the retropolation will be extended to the unemployment rates of both Rio de Janeiro state and Brazil. Over this period, the average unemployment rate in the city of Rio was 9.3%, lower than the national average (9.7%) and the state average (11.5%).

 

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References

Bacciotti, R. e Marçal, E.F. (2020). Taxa de desemprego no Brasil em quatro décadas: retropolação da PNADC de 1976 a 2016, Estudos Econômicos, vol. 50 (3), 513 - 534.

Durbin, J. e Koopman, S.J. (2012). Time series analysis by state space methods. 2nd ed. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Hamilton, J.D. (1994). State-Space Models. Handbook of Econometrics Vol. 4.

Holmes, E. E., Ward, E. J. and Wills, K. (2012) MARSS: Multivariate Autoregressive State-space Models for Analyzing Time-series Data. The R Journal. 4(1):11-19

Published

2025-04-16

How to Cite

BALASSIANO, Marcel; LAVAGNOLE, Marcus Gerardus; PENNA FRANCA, Maíra; MOOG, Leonardo; GARCEZ, João Gabriel. Metodologia da retropolação da taxa de desemprego do Rio (2002-2023). Cadernos do Desenvolvimento Fluminense, Rio de Janeiro, n. 28 especial, 2025. DOI: 10.12957/cdf.2025.89436. Disponível em: https://www.e-publicacoes.uerj.br/cdf/article/view/89436. Acesso em: 1 may. 2025.